Recognizing Strengths and Weaknesses Within a Series

Recognizing Strengths and Weaknesses Within a Series:

Engineering a Reverse Sweep

Today I want to look at how to recognize a team’s strengths and weaknesses not as a whole, but within a best of series.  Being able to quickly recognize these points is essential in not only comebacks, but also in controlling a series from game 1 on.  To do so, we’ll be looking at TSM v GAM from the play-in stage of MSI 2017 primarily games 1 and 2.  We’ll briefly look at Pick and Ban strategies as well as some key moments in game as we talk about the flow of the matches while building a game plan based on how this specific best of plays out.

Game 1

There’s plenty of scouting and research that goes into preparing for any match, let alone a best of series, but what we want to look at is reading the match from game 1 on, so let’s jump into Picks and Bans.

From the first game, we should take away two points from TSM’s perspective.  One, bans are focused against Levi for the early game jungle as well as preventing Kennen from being a huge bully in the top lane.  These bans should immediately indicate that TSM are looking to play a standard match focused on group teamplay rather than split-push play that wants to dodge early game aggression, moving into the mid-game for their win condition.  This is reinforced by their picks, a heavy farming jungler, Ashe, and Rumble.  From this we can understand TSM’s attempted game plan.

The second point to take away, is the Ziggs red flag.  Ziggs isn’t broken by any means, but to the support staff and to players, the pick should signal a few things.  GAM want to create a non-interactive bot lane.  They want to outpush, farm, and all around ignore TSM’s duo lane.  The signal that should flash, is the power curve difference between Ziggs/Karma and Ashe/Zyra.  While Ashe/Zyra level 6 is strong, GAM have no reason to be in a position to worry about this and as the game progresses, Ziggs will spike harder in the mid-game providing much more damage than Ashe will.  This is further compounded with Ashe having difficulty providing DPS uptime against Syndra/Gragas where as Ziggs will be able to freely spam spells. The last flag, and one of the biggest, is simply comfort.  Playing against Ziggs is rare for TSM and so their comfort level against the champion, in lane, out of lane, and in macro decisions is going to be bad.  This doesn’t mean an immediate plan to ban next game in itself, but that he needs to be carefully watched by the support team.

With these two points, one can conclude that TSM need to play calmly.  Ziggs will throw a wrench into their bot laning phase, and their mid-game, but if they play lanes well and earn small advantages they can move into group play without falling behind the power curve of tank v. no tank and Ziggs v Ashe.  But, if you watched the game, you will know that was not what happened.  Let’s take a look at a few key points.

The first issue for TSM, is how they play out this invade.  The invade itself is fine, they have the man advantage and arguably a better level 1.  However instead of warding the bush and pushing out GAM, TSM start the raptors, creating a 50/50 smite situation that turns bad.  TSM should be playing a controlled, slow game taking small advantages, but right off the start they go for a risky, snowball potential move while also playing it wrong and GAM start off ahead.  This is further compounded by Hauntzer being forced to back and use his TP to get to lane at level 1.

The early game continues to go in GAM’s favor, but let’s jump ahead to 10:30 and look at how the lanes have been progressing.

The main thing to look at here, is the CS numbers.  Despite being behind 4 kills, and having a major difference in pressure from junglers, TSM’s Top 3: Top/Jungle/Mid, are keeping up or surpassing their counterparts.  This is huge.  It shows that even when significantly behind from the very get go, they are not losing out in lane to their counterparts in CS, watching the game we can also see that they are not losing in lane pressure either, at times even controlling the lane.  This is a major strength for TSM, and one that expresses the potential skill difference between players.

The other take away, comes from bottom lane.  Neither duo has really been pressured, turrets are near full health, CS is close to even, the difference mainly coming from WT’s death in lane.  In a way, this is also a strength that TSM should recognize.  In an uncomfortable and unfamiliar matchup, WT/Bio are not falling significantly behind.  They’re doing well on an island in a bad matchup.

As we progress, TSM are able to still make plays from behind, getting a couple kills, including a solo kill in mid-lane during a 2v1.  Around 13:30 we also see a very scrappy, messy fight in which GAM over extend, but in doing so draw TSM into the messy fight, during which we see even more outplay potential from Bjerg.  Jumping ahead to 17:30, just before TSM’s mid turret falls down, we can see that the early gold lead from GAM has actually decreased.  All of TSM’s lanes have stayed relatively even to their counterparts, and though the game is about to break open, recognizing this in the moment provides great insight moving forward.  In a potentially significant way, ALL of TSM’s lanes are outperforming GAM, keeping up from behind and preventing a major snowball.

It’s at this point though, that the game is out of TSM’s control, GAM’s powerspikes are hitting, and the lack of a frontline from TSM allows GAM to control the flow of teamfights.  It’s a slower end than better teams will create, and there are mistakes that GAM make that show more small mechanical mistakes from GAM that TSM can take away.  However, as far as improving the game plan going forward, this a good place to stop.  From here on out TSM should lose.

From this game, we can take away several strengths and a few weaknesses, building a plan into the rest of the series.

1. TSM is playing better in lanes, particularly Top/Mid.  Knowing this, slowing down the game and focusing on having a strong Top 3 is a major strength for TSM, building small advantages up over time.
2. Sven, despite several deaths, is keeping up in the jungle, though his lane presence was miniscule.  This indicates a difference in jungle style.  Levi is doing “better” being more impactful, but Sven is playing “smarter” in his ability to keep up in farm and knowing where to path for counter-jungling.  Knowing this, TSM can play to put Sven on a strong, control oriented jungler.  Graves, Lee, Ivern come to mind.  Pathing to keep an eye on Levi and prevent his ganking.  It’s likely Sven can build a lead over time by preventing Levi’s impact.
3. Hauntzer stays even in a somewhat skill oriented matchup, despite jungler focus.  Knowing this, getting Hauntzer into a skill matchup is likely best, allowing him to outplay his opponent.
4. Hauntzer and Bjerg do very well despite disadvantages from level 1.  This should signal to TSM to put focus into them, prioritize the Top/Mid side of the map.
5. WT/Bio stay even despite an uncomfortable lane, however they do remain ineffective.  This has 2 quick takeaways.  The first is, remove Ziggs from the equation.  It turns bot lane into a non-interactive lane and if WT/Bio are able to play well in this type of situation, they should do even better when in more comfortable, standard matchups.  The second take away here, is that WT/Bio do not need any focus and will be perfectly fine on an island.  As TSM’s Top 3 are going to have a bigger impact against GAM, their duo should be given a self-contained lane and mostly left to their own devices.

Game 2

Starting right from picks and bans, we can see that TSM hasn’t really recognized their their strengths and weaknesses from their first game, and oddly enough end up creating a worse draft than last match.  Let’s hop into it.

From the start, TSM’s choice of bans are awkward.  Kennen is fine, but they’ve seen that Levi can play Kha’zix to great success, banning Graves is essentially ineffective.  The Rumble ban is also suspect, considering that Hauntzer was doing well in lane, he should be able to beat Stark no matter what he picks.  Not banning Ziggs is a red flag again as well.  TSM’s mindset is mismatched from how last game played out in that they believe the problem was not having a tank and want to force that matchup top.  I dunno, I think these bans are bad and don’t play to anything that should have been learned from last match.

Moving into picks, TSM picking Ashe, knowing GAM are likely to run Karma/Ziggs again is regretful.  There is a lack of understanding in the lane matchup, as well as how it pushes compositions.  Especially when looking to force a tank v. tank matchup and picking up Lee Sin, there’s a massive potential for hampering your team’s DPS moving forward, which is what TSM end up doing.  Letting Gragas go over to GAM as well is suspect.  We want Hauntzer to be able to have a skillful matchup, but picking Nautilus really puts him into a somewhat skilless top lane while being on the less technical side of it as well.

The last round of draft is also awkward, in that TSM bother banning Fizz while leaving up Ekko.  This was a great spot to ban Ziggs and believe that Bjerg could win the lane, but TSM think they can do fine if Ziggs is picked again.  At this point in the draft though, TSM are almost dead in the water.  Once GAM nab Ziggs, they have only snowball as their win condition, and last picking Braum just makes that all the more difficult.  Not only are TSM fighting with low sustained DPS, they cede bot lane to GAM with the Braum pick further pushing them back in terms of power curves.

All in all, TSM’s draft doesn’t play to their strengths from the previous game, instead playing down their own strengths while GAM stays the same.

We’ll jump straight into the 10 minute mark.  For those of you who haven’t watched the match, the games a bit messy but does favor TSM from the start.  They respond well to GAM’s aggression and do pull out a lead.

Once again at 10 minutes, we can see the Top 3 of TSM staying even or outperforming GAM in a chaotic game.  This time Hauntzer has been building a lead, and Bjerg is winning lane and providing more control than Optimus.  TSM’s duo lane is also staying strong in the lane, despite another death.  In an even worse matchup, they are staying even, and their turret is still strong.  What we can see at this point, is the same strengths as game 1, but in a stronger fashion.

Looking a little big forward to the 2nd dragon fight, we can see that TSM are significantly ahead in terms of gold, but here is where things go sour and we see the compositional errors that TSM made shine.  TSM’s composition is good at the start of the fight.  Though Optimus gets a good flank, TSM are able to come out ahead in the fight, getting a 2 for 1.  It’s at this point TSM should just back off, they have used their burst damage and need to recognize how low their sustained damage is.  Instead, TSM try to fight and give up 3 kills for 0.  TSM did not recognize the difference in sustained damage and fall in what is essentially Syndra vs 3.

After this, we once again see that TSM are unfamiliar with Ziggs, moving to push bottom while leaving him alone top, ending up in a terrible trade that pulls GAM back to even gold and in control of the match with better split-push and better team-fighting.  This exactly same situation occurs again at the third dragon, in which TSM start the dragon and lose the fight even worse, having no sustained damage, especially with WT pushed out by Zed.

For TSM, there should be 3 big takeaways from this game.

1. The same strengths that could be taken from game 1 still apply.
2. Rushing plays, forcing objectives, and all around not taking the time to control fights and the map are playing right into GAM’s style.  Particularly the dragon fights are showing TSM’s lack of respect, or understanding of GAM’s composition against their own.  They need to slow down and play the game we know TSM is capable of.  With their strengths once again showing the same as game 1, TSM should be playing the game of a thousand paper cuts.  Turning small advantages in lane into a substantial team advantage.
3. Take out Ziggs.  This is the second time he’s prevented TSM’s duo from being a factor in lane as well as providing significantly better presence in team fights.  This game also shows how he twists the macro element of a match and can punish if teams are unfamiliar with him.

Game 3

Moving into Game 3, the plan for TSM should be the same as after game 1.  These points have only be reinforced by game 2 and must be recognized at this point.  Let’s look at draft.

This. Draft. Is. Perfect.  Everything about this draft from TSM is done right and plays 100% to their strengths against GAM and stopping their weaknesses.  First off, Ziggs is banned and jungle bans have been dropped, recognizing that they can’t stop Levi and need to let Bot lane “play the game.”  Snagging Karma early gives TSM a great starting point for bot lane, and dropping the early Ashe allows more flexibility.  Taking Gragas before GAM is also huge, it gives Hauntzer a near guaranteed skill based lane in which he can show his prowess.  Moving into the second phase, TSM pick up a strong mid laner for Bjerg that he can dominate with, and WT is put onto a self-sufficient ADC.  This draft works so well in TSM’s strengths and is what we should have seen from game 2.

As for the game itself, there’s not much to say about it.  TSM win lanes, and stomp the game.  This is what you see from a better team when they get a controlled early lead and have a solid composition.  With a skilled matchup for Hauntzer, we see him shine.  Bjerg again controls mid, and TSM’s duo, now in a lane that actually interacts with each other, are able to show that they’re just fine being left alone and can even pull advantages in lane.  Great job and the takeaway is easy.  Do it again.

Game 4

Moving into game 4, TSM falter.  Their great game play and plan from game 3 seems to have been forgotten and they fall away from their strengths in this series.  Let’s look at the draft.

TSM’s first round is solid.  They stay with the same bans and take the Karma.  I’d almost like to see a Gragas ban instead of LB, but GAM gave it up last game, and keeping it from Optimus is fine.  The Nautilus pick is ok, it puts the lane back to neutral in which Hauntzer should get a small lead, but will be unable to really showcase dominance in lane.  It’s not the best start, but it is solid.

The issues start to show in the 2nd round.  We get double ADC bans from GAM, but it still leaves up options for TSM’s duo to have a self-contained lane.  Caitlyn and Lucian are both solid picks here, allowing them to show laning skill, staying even or ahead of GAM.  The biggest problem comes with picking Orianna.  TSM are putting a lot of their eggs into WT and so far in the series the bot lane has not been TSM’s strongest point.  With the Orianna pick, TSM’s duo can no longer just do well/better and move into teamfights as a solid point, but have to dominate and turn into the linchpin for TSM.

By no means, however, does this mean TSM are at a disadvantage, when playing controlled, they are still showing up as the better players, it just means that they haven’t given themselves the highest chance possible from the start.

Right off the bat, TSM’s duo are playing without control.  They go all-in at level one against a duo that has sustain.  The all-in fails and WT is forced back, losing any control they should ahve had in the matchup.  Another mistake happens mid-lane, when Bjerg doesn’t respect the level 6 from Fizz, even when knowing that he will have the exp advantage from both TP, and the current lane push.  More early game overzealousness puts TSM behind, but just as in previous games, if we look at the 10 minute mark we can see all lanes on TSM are staying even/ahead in CS despite deaths and greedy plays in lane.

Again, we can see TSM gaining on GAM’s gold lead around the 20 minute mark, pulling ahead in CS and getting a few kills of their own.  There are still mistakes, like Hauntzer trying to defend top T2 turret, but overall there is a slow gain for TSM.  Shortly after though, at the next dragon, TSM almost lose the game.  Though they are climbing back, and going to scale well with Caitlynn, WT’s Flank? If you can call it that at dragon is just a huge mistake (but we can learn from this) and extremely surprising, this should signal a big lead for GAM as they threaten Baron and get more kills, and then the inhibitor, but luckily for TSM they throw here as well, trying to end the game but instead handing TSM the Baron and the win.

There is something we can heavily take away from this game that shows its head more than previous matches.  We can still pull from this game that TSM are better off focusing the Top 3 and leaving their duo to play well on their own.  The big new thing or rather confirmation is about TSM’s weakness against GAM.  TSM need to stop trying to “make plays.”  There feels this deep seeded need to “show off” to stomp GAM to almost prove to themselves that they are good players rather than knowing that they are and playing a solid game.  They take risky plays, force fights, try to be the hero, and it’s not working out.  Pressure is hitting TSM hard.  It’s been their main weakness for the whole series, but here more than any other game, it shines through.

Game 5

Finally, we move into game 5.  TSM need to calm down, play their own controlled game and not fall to the pressure.  Look to the success of game 3 and recognize where their strengths, and weaknesses are in this series.

TSM start the draft on a great foot, once again staying with the bans/1st pick strategy.  This time around though, they pick Bjerg into a strong spot from the start, giving him the ability to outperform Optimus.  Ivern is a great choice for TSM, allowing Sven to focus even more on supporting Hauntzer/Bjerg and tracking Levi.

The second round bans from GAM are strange, knocking out Lucian/Caitlyn and not Ezreal.  Either way TSM take EZ/Cait here.  The pickup of Renekton is huge for TSM, this puts Hauntzer into a skill based match up in top lane, allowing him the potential to dominate.  Another draft that plays into the strengths TSM have in this series.

At this point, the support staff’s job is done, there is no more to do.  And though it took awhile to get there, we have our 2nd strong draft from TSM, that plays into their strengths of the series.  It’s up to the players to stay away from their weakness of uncontrolled play.

We won’t look much at Game 5 for this video, as we wanted to look at recognizing and working with strengths and weaknesses within a series.  There’s much of the same in this game as the last few, GAM showing their aggression, TSM trying a little too hard, but we get to see Hauntzer in a matchup he can take over, and take over he does, nearly putting the entire team on his back and getting so far ahead that GAM have no answer for him.

Bonus: MSI Group Stage

I had wanted to have this video out earlier, but being late, we get a little bonus, the rematch of TSM v GAM in the 2nd Group stage.  TSM have had a week to study this series, recognize their strengths and weaknesses against GAM and come up with a strong solid plan for their first game in the group.

Sadly, and very disappointingly this was not the case.  TSM’s game plan and in-game play felt like no one had studied their series against GAM.  TSM came in with a plan, but one that ran entirely counter to their strengths against GAM previously.

I don’t really like to be negative, but TSM’s draft here is just dreadful.  It’s like they entirely forgot about their series with GAM.  First off, they ban Syndra as their last ban, which is an awful control ban at this point.  TSM should be banning Karma here, prevent one of GAM’s strongest champions from their last set, and force GAM to choose between Lulu/Gragas/Syndra.  In this way they can get 2 of those 3 picks, providing a strong start to their draft.  Instead they give GAM Gragas, a champion Hauntzer can outplay Stark with, and trade for Lulu/Graves, the first of which is just a trade with Karma, and second is just another trade against Levi with no gain for TSM.  Even in the way they banned, TSM should take Karma instead of Lulu, especially if they want to flex it, giving Bjerg something to work with instead of put on the back burner.  AFTER that, we still get a bad pick-up in Nautilus, providing a neutral lane despite how strong Hauntzer has been against Stark and while WT can get two comfortable champions banned from him in the next rotation.

The second phase draft is just as worse if not more so.  Banning Lee Sin is almost pointless, knowing that Levi will go Kha’zix and do perfectly fine early/mid/late on him.  If TSM wanted to ban jungle, send both bans at Levi and knock down the Kha’zix as well.  Banning Leblanc is also a big head scratcher.  If TSM are willing/planning to flex Lulu mid, leave Leblanc up.  It is actually a good matchup for Lulu both in lane and outside of lane.  Twitch next, well whatever, WT is running low on champions and its not the worst pick, TSM could run a Twitch composition with Orianna/Lulu and try to salvage this draft, hope for a game like Game 4 but with less errors from TSM.  Instead, they don’t put Lulu bottom, they hamper Bjerg by having him play Lulu, and put nearly 100% of the game onto Twitch.  It’s just, ugh.  I could complain about this draft and composition just by itself, let alone in context of their past series.

In the end, TSM draft a comp that plays to 0 of their strengths against GAM, completely hampering their highest win conditions and put their eggs into their weakest possible basket against GAM.  Inside of the game is no better, with TSM running a comedy of errors, once again trying to force plays and “prove” themselves, almost as if, once again, they need to validate themselves to others.